A Rising Fall

Markets saw modest gains throughout last week. The S&P 500 sector winners were Financials and Utilities, while Health Care and Energy lagged. Spot gold hit a record high, surpassing $2,700 on Friday. Economic data from last week was mixed but mild, and markets have remained surprisingly resilient for autumn leading up to a major U.S. election.

Weekly Performance

Data Source: Factset®        Performance Period:      10/14/2024  to 10/11/2024

Last week’s economic data was fairly sparce, but still insightful. On Tuesday, the Empire State manufacturing survey for October came in the weakest since May, with a nearly 12-point reduction. On Thursday, initial jobless claims and industrial production data underwhelmed forecasted numbers. However, U.S. retail sales and home builder confidence indices edged higher. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for September blew past the expected 3-point increase to reach 10.3. Friday brought the final economic data of the week, with building permits for September seeing a decrease of 2.9% and housing starts lowering by half a percent.

This week starts with U.S. leading economic indicators for a broad overview on possible future trends steering the economy. The week also brings insight into the real estate sector, with data on existing and new home sales. Initial jobless claims on Thursday offers the labor market’s weekly pulse check. Services and manufacturing PMI provide color regarding whether the industries are in contractionary or expansionary territory. Friday finishes out with consumer sentiment for October.

Turning to the markets, this fall has seen an unexpected rally. The S&P 500 has historically had more losses than gains each September since 1928. This year was different. Last month the index rose 2%, capturing a new record high along the way. The Dow Jones was a close second, when it gained 1.8% for the month – also breaking its own records. Even the Russell 2000 edged up over half a percentage point. Enthusiasm surrounding the future of artificial intelligence has been a major boost to tech stocks throughout the year. On the other hand, markets have been very sensitive to uncertainty in the labor market, geopolitics, and the upcoming election, and many retail companies have been citing weakened consumers as the reason for declining sales. While the market rally has continued into October with the S&P 500 and Dow hitting fresh records, the future is uncertain given the current economic backdrop and pending election. Having a strategy which accounts for potential risks relative to one’s own financial stewardship goals is key. “Where there is no guidance, a people fall, but in an abundance of counselors there is safety” (Proverbs 11:14). Reach out to our team, if you’d like to review where your accounts stand relative to the potential risks ahead.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Reuters.com, and JP Morgan Market Insights

 Sources: Yahoo Finance, Reuters.com, and JP Morgan Market Insights. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Faithward Advisors LLC. Osaic Wealth is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth. Dream More, Plan More, Do More is a registered trademark of Faithward Advisors, LLC, Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm. Off. Any opinions expressed in this forum are not the opinion or view of Faithward Advisors or American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc. (APFS). They have not been reviewed by either firm for completeness or accuracy. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Any comments or postings are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk and may result in a loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are not suitable for all types of investors.