In the second quarter, the S&P 500 made solid strides higher, led by Material and Financial companies. As the world opens back up, businesses are aggressively sourcing raw materials, specifically industrial metals like copper and steel. Tis, in turn, has led to a very stressed supply chain. We have seen issues with lumber production (predominately due to mill capacity and some environmental/cross-border constraints), the blocked Suez Canal, and, more recently, a blocked Mississippi River. Te fight for supply has been equally met with increased demand and demand expectations, leading to performance in financial companies. Credit card companies have led the charge with consumers beginning to make summer plans and discretionary purchases. Demand expectations have risen with continued government support and low interest rates, which could lead to even more spending in the future.
While following the markets, our team has also pored over a plethora of economic data, with special attention on jobs and housing, as they both have a dramatic impact on the consumer
in a consumption-driven economy. Regional restrictions have begun to lift, leading to the service industry getting back to business, which accounts for more than 70 percent of US GDP. Continuing jobless claims have certainly fallen from a COVID high of 23 million to less than four million, which is a great improvement. Tat said, concerns persist over whether some job loss will be structural in nature or if jobs will snap back once all restrictions are lifted. In housing, the market strongly favors the seller. Te inventory of for sale homes remains low, and the ones that do sell are predominately bought above asking price. Due to the bidding wars, very recently, the data appears to show potential buyers are shifting to building new homes, even with higher lumber prices.
We begin the third quarter with high hopes of what the future will bring. Uncertainty will likely persist, entering a summer of expected exuberance, but we will remain vigilant, diversified, and positive; and we’ll do it together, as a team.
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